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Ageing societies
The percentage of the population that is 65 years or older is rising in all OECD countries and is expected to continue doing so. The number of inactive elderly as a ratio of the numbers in the total labour force is also increasing throughout OECD countries. These trends have a number of implications for government and private spending on pensions and health care and, more generally, for economic growth and welfare.
Definition
Population is defined as the resident population, i.e. all persons, regardless of citizenship, who have a permanent place of residence in the country. The labour force is defined according to the ILO Guidelines and consists of those in employment plus persons who are available for work and who are actively seeking employment. Population projections are taken from national sources where these are available, but for some countries they are based on Eurostat and UN projections.
Comparability
Almost all OECD countries now follow the ILO Guidelines for defining the labour force, so there is good comparability between countries.
All population projections require assumptions about future trends in life expectancy, fertility rates and migration. Often, a range of projections is produced using different assumptions about these future trends. The estimates shown here correspond to the median or central variant.
The labour force projections start from the population projections described above but then require additional assumptions about the future labour force participation rates of men and women in different age groups. For the projections shown here, particular care has been taken in modeling future trends in the labour force participation of women and of elderly persons.
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Long-term trends The youngest populations (low shares of population aged 65 or over) are either in countries with high birth rates such as Mexico, Iceland and Turkey or in countries with high immigration, such as Australia, Canada and New Zealand. All these countries will, however, experience significant ageing over the next 50 years. The dependency ratio (right panel of the table) is projected to be close to 50% in Belgium, France, Greece, Hungary, Italy and Japan by 2020. This means that, for each elderly inactive person, there will be only two persons in the labour force. The lowest dependency ratios, under 25%, are projected for Iceland, Korea, Mexico and Turkey. All countries will experience a further sharp increase in the dependency ratio over the period 2020 to 2050. |
Sources
- OECD (2006), Labour Force Statistics, OECD, Paris.
- Eurostat, United Nations, national sources and OECD estimates.
Further information
Analytical publications
- Burniaux, J.-M., R. Duval and F. Jaumotte (2004), Coping with Ageing, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 371, OECD, Paris.
- OECD (2000), Reforms for an Ageing Society, OECD, Paris.
- OECD (2001), Ageing and Income Financial Resources and Retirement in 9 OECD Countries, OECD, Paris.
- OECD (2001), Ageing and Transport Mobility Needs and Safety Issues, OECD, Paris.
- OECD (2003), Ageing, Housing and Urban Development, OECD, Paris.
- OECD (2005), Pensions at a Glance, 2005 Edition, OECD, Paris.
- OECD (2006), OECD Employment Outlook, OECD, Paris.
- OECD (2006), Ageing and Employment Policies, series, OECD, Paris.
- Oliveira Martins J., F. Gonand, P. Antolin, C. de la Maisonneuve and K.-Y. Yoo (2005), The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 420, OECD, Paris.
Statistical publications
- OECD (2004), Quarterly Labour Force Statistics, OECD, Paris.
- OECD (2006), Main Economic Indicators, OECD, Paris.
Methodological publications
- OECD (1997), "Sources and Methods – Labour and Wage Statistics”, Main Economic Indicators: April Volume 1997 Issue 4, OECD, Paris.
Online databases
| Texts | |
| • | Indicator web page |
| • | Indicator in PDF |
| Tables (xls) | |
| • | Population aged 65 and over |
| Graphics | |
| • | Ratio of the inactive population aged 65 and over to the labour force |
Ratio of the inactive population aged 65 and over to the labour force
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